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Drill results, filings and site visits before narrative. Every number links to its source.
Independent · Free · Mining & resources
Start from the rock.
Start from the rock.
Show the working.
Free, independent research on mining and resource companies. We build every call from the deposit up, publish it as a set of weighted scenarios, and revisit it in public when the facts change.
The register
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Most resource coverage starts with a price target and works backwards. We start with what's in the ground, build up to what it might be worth, and say plainly where we could be wrong. A field notebook, not a trading floor.
Built bottom-up
Geology, then resource, mine plan, costs, value. No step skipped, no shortcut to a target.
Odds, not promises
Calls arrive as scenarios with probabilities attached, so you can see, and change, the weights.
Revisited in public
When the facts move, the note changes, and the old version stays visible beside the new one.
Method
From core sample to call.
Every note is logged like a drill core: layer by layer, from the geology at the bottom to the scenarios at the top. Scroll to work down the hole.
What's actually in the ground.
We read the drill logs, assays and maps before any company presentation. Deposit type, continuity and depth decide most of what comes later.
- Source documents linked inline
- Plain-English glossary for every technical term
How much, at what grade, with what confidence.
Measured, indicated and inferred tonnes are not the same thing. We show which category each tonne sits in, and how much the case leans on the least certain ones.
Can it be dug, and how?
Strip ratios, recoveries, water, power, permits and people. This is where good deposits most often turn into slow projects.
What it takes, all-in, per tonne.
We build costs bottom-up and check them against operating peers, then show the range rather than a single tidy number.
What it might be worth across prices.
A discounted cash-flow model at several commodity prices, with the model itself downloadable so you can test our assumptions.
Weighted outcomes, in plain view.
Finally, three to five scenarios, each with a probability. The weighted value is our call, and the weights are open to argument.
A live call
Disagree? Move the weights.
This is how every call is published: the scenarios, what each is worth, and how likely we think it is. Drag the probabilities to see how much your view changes the answer, then tell us why.
Note No. 047 · Initiation
Fictional · Demo data
Kestrel Lithium — Ridgeline project
Hard-rock spodumene, Western Australia · 38 Mt resource
Fictional project assumptions
“Every note ends with the same heading: what would change our mind. If we can't write that section, we're not ready to publish.”
No. 047 · What would change our mind
- 01The state EPA sets a hearing date before March. That removes most of the permitting delay.Stalls −10 pts
- 02Infill drilling at the north pit fails to confirm the indicated tonnes the base case relies on.Base −15 pts
- 03An offtake partner takes equity at or above the current price, which de-risks the financing.Stage 2 +5 pts
Revision log
We change our minds in public.
Every change to a call is logged with the date, the reason and the old numbers left visible. That includes the times new facts didn't change anything, and the times we were simply wrong.
Kestrel Lithium · No. 047
Permitting will take longer than we assumed.
The state EPA extended public comment by 60 days. We had underweighted that risk, so we moved probability from the base case to the delay case.
Stalls15%→20%
Base case50%→45%
WeightedA$1.99→A$1.92
Weights moved
Harrow Potash · No. 039
We got the trucking cost wrong.
A reader who runs haulage in the region pointed out our road-freight rate was a 2024 figure. They were right. Corrected, with thanks.
Haulage, per tonneA$38→A$51
WeightedA$0.74→A$0.61
Our error
Okoa Graphite · No. 041
New drilling, same view.
Twelve new holes came back in line with the resource model. We checked, and nothing changed. We log that too.
All scenariosUnchanged
WeightedA$0.33
Checked · no change
Tallis Uranium · No. 035
We removed a scenario.
The restart case relied on a mill that has since been sold. That path no longer exists, so it's gone, and its weight has been spread across the remaining cases.
Scenarios4→3
WeightedA$0.42→A$0.29
Scenario retired
Field notes
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